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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 83-K.Raymond pushed ob at NYG 30 for 8 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.75 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model