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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 41

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 18-J.Doctson (27-D.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.51 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model