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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 90

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for -1 yards (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model