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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SEA
58.2%
SF
41.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • C.J. Beathard (SF): -0.130 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • SF on 8 more days rest than SEA
  • SF defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
SF 19
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SEA

Oday Aboushi G Out Shoulder
Kam Chancellor S Out Neck
Shaquill Griffin CB Out Concussion
Mike Davis RB Doubtful Groin
D.J. Alexander LB Questionable Shoulder
Duane Brown T Questionable Ankle
Dion Jordan DE Questionable Neck
Bobby Wagner LB Questionable Hamstring
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Ankle
Luke Joeckel G Questionable Knee
Jarran Reed DT Questionable Hamstring
Michael Wilhoite LB Questionable Calf

SF

Adrian Colbert S Out Thumb
Trenton Brown T Questionable Shoulder
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Shoulder
Trent Taylor WR Questionable Ribs
Solomon Thomas DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 24
–
SF 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:28 TD SEA (13:28) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:08 FG SF (:08) 9-R.Gould 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SEA 7 – SF 3
  • Q3 09:24 FG SF (9:24) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SEA 7 – SF 6
  • Q3 06:37 TD SEA (6:37) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 81-N.Vannett for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – SF 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 88-J.Graham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – SF 6
  • Q4 03:30 FG SEA (3:30) 7-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SEA 24 – SF 6
  • Q4 00:02 TD SF (:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 18-L.Murphy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 24 – SF 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 27 for 8 yards (27-D.McCoil). rain beginning to fall.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 72%

    (9:34) 7-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (6:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to SEA 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 15 at the 36
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 57%

    (2:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 20 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for -1 yards (31-R.Mostert).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:36) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to SF 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 19 for no gain (28-J.Coleman).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SEA 20, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:01) 9-J.Ryan punts 32 yards to SF 41, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on SF-26-G.Mabin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 41.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 13 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 55%

    (2:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 21 yards to SEA 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:52) 9-J.Ryan punts 74 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor ran ob at SF 33 for 18 yards.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

    (9:24) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to SEA 37, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 18%

    (11:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 22%

    (7:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to SF 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to SF 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-19-A.Robinson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (3:30) 7-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 91%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-A.Robinson to SEA 10 for 8 yards (30-B.McDougald). Caught at SEA 10. 0-YAC