Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(9:36) 9-J.Ryan punts 52 yards to SF 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor to SF 19 for no gain (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model