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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 21 yards to SEA 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model