Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 89

Seattle Seahawks 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(1:52) 9-J.Ryan punts 74 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 81-T.Taylor ran ob at SF 33 for 18 yards.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.91 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 89, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model