Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 72

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 14

(5:41) 5-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to SEA 37, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model