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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 93

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to SF 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-19-A.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.63 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 93, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 51, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model