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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 16

Seattle Seahawks 21 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 7-B.Walsh 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.40 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model