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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 15 at the 36
Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(2:15) 9-J.Ryan punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.53 EP
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
- 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
KICK
-0.29 EP
Model's Pick
- 57% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT
-0.38 EP
What Happened
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
