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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(10:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model