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Tennessee Titans

7-4 HC Mike Mularkey
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Indianapolis Colts

3-8 HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TEN
38.7%
IND
61.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.104 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.025 EPA/dropback
  • IND on 4 more days rest than TEN

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20 13–27
–
IND 21 14–28
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

TEN

Rishard Matthews WR Questionable Hamstring

IND

Darrell Daniels TE Out Hamstring
Hassan Ridgeway DT Out Shoulder
Margus Hunt DE Questionable Illness
Kyle Kalis G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 20
–
IND 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:58 FG TEN (7:58) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 01:57 FG TEN (1:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 10:09 FG IND (10:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. TEN 6 – IND 3
  • Q2 02:11 FG IND (2:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. TEN 6 – IND 6
  • Q2 00:42 TD IND (:42) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 12
  • Q3 06:11 FG IND (6:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. TEN 6 – IND 16
  • Q3 01:56 TD TEN (1:56) (Run formation) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – IND 16
  • Q4 06:02 TD TEN (6:02) (Run formation) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 29-D.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 19 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:16) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to TEN 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 36 for 7 yards (42-K.Moore II).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 96%

    (7:58) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 IND 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:27) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to TEN 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-50-A.Walker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 79%

    (1:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (10:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (2:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:14) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-33-T.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 IND 4th & 12 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (6:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 30%

    (3:04) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to IND 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (14:51) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to TEN 2, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:57) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to IND 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 24 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (11:31) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:04) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 28 for no gain (28-C.Milton).

    See the full breakdown →