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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 83

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to TEN 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 36 for 7 yards (42-K.Moore II).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model