4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(14:51) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to TEN 2, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-28-C.Milton.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model