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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(5:27) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to TEN 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-50-A.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model