4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 16 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 47 yards to DEN 8, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP