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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

DEN
39.6%
MIA
60.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.058 vs Trevor Siemian (DEN) -0.080 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Jay Cutler in place of Matt Moore; DEN starting Trevor Siemian in place of Paxton Lynch)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DEN

Ronald Leary G Out Back
Paxton Lynch QB Out Ankle
Domata Peko DT Out Knee
Derek Wolfe DE Out Neck
Todd Davis LB Questionable Ankle
Shane Ray LB Questionable Wrist
DeMarcus Walker DE Questionable Illness
Jeff Heuerman TE Questionable Knee

MIA

Jermon Bushrod G Out Foot
Matt Moore QB Out Foot
Maurice Smith S Out Abdomen
Damien Williams RB Out Shoulder
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Knee
Senorise Perry RB Questionable Concussion
Michael Thomas S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 9
–
MIA 35

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:12 SAF MIA (3:12) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian Aborted. 61-M.Paradis FUMBLES at DEN -7, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. DEN 0 – MIA 2
  • Q2 13:30 FG DEN (13:30) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 3 – MIA 2
  • Q2 09:43 TD MIA (9:43) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 89-J.Thomas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Offside, declined. DEN 3 – MIA 8
  • Q2 09:39 TD MIA (9:39) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left intended for 88-D.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard at DEN 30. 25-X.Howard for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – MIA 15
  • Q3 10:35 FG MIA (10:35) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. DEN 3 – MIA 19
  • Q3 05:08 TD DEN (5:08) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons at DEN 35. 31-J.Simmons for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-K.Stills, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 9 – MIA 19
  • Q3 03:04 TD MIA (3:04) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake left guard for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – MIA 25
  • Q4 10:27 TD MIA (10:27) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-V.Miller]. DEN 9 – MIA 32
  • Q4 09:03 SAF DEN (9:03) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 52 yards to DEN 3, Center-92-J.Denney. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 1 for -2 yards (59-C.Allen). FUMBLES (59-C.Allen), and recovers at DEN -8. 84-I.McKenzie tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (34-S.Perry). DEN 9 – MIA 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 42%

    (8:36) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 31 yards to DEN 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 31%

    (4:35) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 37 yards to DEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie. PENALTY on DEN-41-J.Garcia-Williams, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 9.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:33) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (13:30) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 17 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:55) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to MIA 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-J.Landry to MIA 11 for -5 yards (16-B.Fowler).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 25%

    (5:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to MIA 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 47 yards to DEN 8, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (:03) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:28) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to MIA 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 47 for 17 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Latimer, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 47.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 11 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

    (10:35) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (8:25) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 78-T.Fede, Center-42-C.Kreiter, RECOVERED by MIA-31-M.Thomas at DEN 20. 31-M.Thomas ran ob at DEN 20 for no gain. PENALTY on MIA-78-T.Fede, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:40) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant to DEN 48 for 17 yards (48-S.Barrett).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:09) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to MIA 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant to 50 for 27 yards (31-J.Simmons; 42-C.Kreiter). DEN-31-J.Simmons was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 34%

    (1:11) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to DEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-21-J.Lucas.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:56) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIA 48, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 34%

    (12:10) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to DEN 6, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-46-N.Hewitt.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:03) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 52 yards to DEN 3, Center-92-J.Denney. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 1 for -2 yards (59-C.Allen). FUMBLES (59-C.Allen), and recovers at DEN -8. 84-I.McKenzie tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (34-S.Perry).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 23%

    (6:23) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to DEN 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:01) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at 50 for 22 yards (20-J.Carter). DEN-43-J.Jones was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on MIA-46-N.Hewitt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 28.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:20) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 52 yards to DEN 21, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.