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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 57

Denver Broncos 3 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(:03) 13-T.Siemian pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 57, worth -1.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.64 EP