Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 88

Denver Broncos 3 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(13:28) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to MIA 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant ran ob at MIA 47 for 17 yards (32-A.Janovich). PENALTY on DEN-14-C.Latimer, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 88, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model