4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 16 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:35) (Field Goal formation) 1-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model