Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 86

Denver Broncos 3 – Miami Dolphins 19

(6:40) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 19-J.Grant to DEN 48 for 17 yards (48-S.Barrett).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 86, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model