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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 26 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to DEN 9, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-21-J.Lucas.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.32 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model