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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 31 yards to DEN 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.45 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model