Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 33 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 52 yards to DEN 3, Center-92-J.Denney. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 1 for -2 yards (59-C.Allen). FUMBLES (59-C.Allen), and recovers at DEN -8. 84-I.McKenzie tackled in End Zone, SAFETY (34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.92 EP
74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model