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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 35 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(6:23) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 36 yards to DEN 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.66 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model