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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 35 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 52 yards to DEN 21, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP