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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 13

Denver Broncos 0 – Miami Dolphins 2

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.33 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model