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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 28 yards to DET 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.31 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 41, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP