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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DET
44.3%
BAL
55.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL defense: -0.203 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Joe Flacco (BAL): -0.171 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BAL offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DET on 4 more days rest than BAL
  • DET offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 20
–
BAL 22
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

DET

Jamal Agnew CB Out Knee
Travis Swanson C Out Knee
Ameer Abdullah RB Questionable Neck
T.J. Lang G Questionable Foot

BAL

Jermaine Eluemunor G Out Shoulder
Alex Collins RB Questionable Calf
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Knee
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Thigh
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Ankle
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 20
–
BAL 44

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:01 FG BAL (6:01) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. DET 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 11:58 TD BAL (11:58) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BAL 9
  • Q2 06:58 TD BAL (6:58) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 42-P.Ricard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – BAL 16
  • Q2 00:05 FG BAL (:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. DET 0 – BAL 20
  • Q3 12:16 TD DET (12:16) (Shotgun) 25-T.Riddick right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – BAL 20
  • Q3 02:23 TD DET (2:23) 38-T.Green left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Stafford has completed 17 passes in a row. DET 13 – BAL 20
  • Q4 12:46 TD BAL (12:46) 34-A.Collins right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – BAL 26
  • Q4 10:24 TD DET (10:24) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 43-N.Bellore for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – BAL 27
  • Q4 06:59 FG BAL (6:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker is 5-7 FGA from 50+ yards. DET 20 – BAL 30
  • Q4 04:06 TD BAL (4:06) 34-A.Collins left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – BAL 36
  • Q4 02:36 TD BAL (2:36) (Shotgun) 14-J.Rudock pass short right intended for 15-G.Tate INTERCEPTED by 32-E.Weddle [26-M.Canady] at DET 45. 32-E.Weddle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ravens' NFL-leading 20th Interception of season. DET 20 – BAL 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to DET 3, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:56) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to BAL 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 37 for 9 yards (54-S.Longa). PENALTY on DET-58-P.Worrilow, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 37.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (6:01) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:51) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to DET 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-T.Jones to DET 36 for 9 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

    (12:55) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:09) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 29 for 9 yards (26-D.Carey). FUMBLES (26-D.Carey), recovered by BAL-26-M.Canady at BAL 30. 26-M.Canady to BAL 30 for no gain (34-Z.Zenner).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 50%

    (1:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 28 yards to DET 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:22) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to DET 45, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:20) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to DET 22, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:34) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to BAL 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to DET 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-T.Jones to DET 25 for 5 yards (36-C.Clark).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

    (6:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker is 5-7 FGA from 50+ yards.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:36) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to BAL 17, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-M.Campanaro ran ob at BAL 27 for 10 yards.