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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to DET 3, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model