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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to DET 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-T.Jones to DET 25 for 5 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model