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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 79

Detroit Lions 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to BAL 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 37 for 9 yards (54-S.Longa). PENALTY on DET-58-P.Worrilow, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.63 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model