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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Tucker is 5-7 FGA from 50+ yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 43, worth -2.10 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model