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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 20

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model