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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

KC
43.4%
NYJ
56.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.014 vs Alex Smith (KC) +0.112 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ offense: -0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 22
–
NYJ 24
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

KC

Dee Ford LB Out Back
Eric Murray S Out Ankle
Charcandrick West RB Out Not Injury Related
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee
Albert Wilson WR Questionable Hamstring

NYJ

Juston Burris CB Out Concussion
Xavier Cooper DT Questionable Knee
Matt Forte RB Questionable Knee
Brian Winters G Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 31
–
NYJ 38

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:29 TD KC (12:29) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 10:42 TD KC (10:42) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. KC 13 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 06:16 TD NYJ (6:16) 79-B.Qvale reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 00:56 TD NYJ (:56) 15-J.McCown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 14 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 02:53 FG KC (2:53) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 00:29 TD NYJ (:29) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short middle to 22-M.Forte for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. KC 17 – NYJ 20
  • Q3 05:32 FG NYJ (5:32) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. KC 17 – NYJ 24
  • Q3 05:23 TD KC (5:23) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – NYJ 24
  • Q3 03:30 FG NYJ (3:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. KC 24 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 11:28 FG NYJ (11:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. KC 24 – NYJ 30
  • Q4 09:19 TD KC (9:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 30 – NYJ 30
  • Q4 02:20 TD NYJ (2:20) 15-J.McCown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 31 – NYJ 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:55) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to KC 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at NYJ 36 for 24 yards (4-L.Edwards).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:55) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NYJ 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%

    (2:21) 15-J.McCown up the middle to KC 8 for 2 yards (96-B.Logan; 57-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (10:23) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 38%

    (5:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to KC 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (2:53) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (5:32) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 80%

    (3:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NYJ 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 87-J.Natson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (11:28) 7-C.Catanzaro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce.