4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 47

New York Jets 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to KC 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.49 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model