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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 9

New York Jets 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 7-C.Catanzaro 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.61 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP