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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – New York Jets 38

What Actually Happened

(:49) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 87-T.Kelce.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.87 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.27 EP