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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 10

New York Jets 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 15-J.McCown up the middle to KC 8 for 2 yards (96-B.Logan; 57-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO +3.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.47 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model