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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model