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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

MIN
45.1%
ATL
54.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • MIN on 3 more days rest than ATL
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.152 vs Case Keenum (MIN) +0.134 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIN

Mike Remmers T Out Back
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Hip

ATL

Desmond Trufant CB Out Concussion
Sean Weatherspoon LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 14
–
ATL 9

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:29 FG ATL (5:29) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIN 0 – ATL 3
  • Q2 10:06 TD MIN (10:06) (Shotgun) 75-J.Sirles reported in as eligible. 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 21-J.McKinnon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – ATL 3
  • Q2 05:51 FG ATL (5:51) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIN 7 – ATL 6
  • Q3 12:01 FG ATL (12:01) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. MIN 7 – ATL 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – ATL 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:55) 4-R.Quigley punts 34 yards to ATL 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 58%

    (7:25) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman to MIN 24 for 15 yards (55-A.Barr).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (5:29) 3-M.Bryant 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 19 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 36%

    (1:42) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to ATL 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:13) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to MIN 47, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (5:51) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:00) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to ATL 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 32 for 3 yards (30-C.Ham).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 29%

    (1:52) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to MIN 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

    (12:01) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:48) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to ATL 29, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 18 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:20) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to MIN 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:27) 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to MIN 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 27 for 10 yards (50-B.Reed; 80-L.Toilolo).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 83%

    (5:04) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.