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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to ATL 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.75 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model