Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 3

(9:59) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-B.Reedy to NE 31 for 11 yards (30-L.Pitts).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.98 EP
59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model