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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

NE
67.6%
BUF
32.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.271 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 25
–
BUF 19
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

NE

Marcus Cannon T Out Ankle
Chris Hogan WR Out Shoulder
David Andrews C Questionable Illness
Marquis Flowers LB Questionable Knee
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Rib
Trevor Reilly LB Questionable Concussion
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Calf
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Ankle

BUF

Kelvin Benjamin WR Out Knee
Cordy Glenn T Out Foot
John Miller G Out Ankle
Mike Tolbert RB Out Hamstring
Seantrel Henderson T Questionable Illness
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Patrick DiMarco RB Questionable Ankle
Jordan Matthews WR Questionable Knee
Conor McDermott T Questionable Chest
Nick O'Leary TE Questionable Back
Eddie Yarbrough DE Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 23
–
BUF 3

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:35 FG NE (1:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 06:30 FG NE (6:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 03:11 FG BUF (3:11) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NE 6 – BUF 3
  • Q2 00:19 FG NE (:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 9 – BUF 3
  • Q3 09:05 TD NE (9:05) 34-R.Burkhead left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 15 – BUF 3
  • Q3 01:16 TD NE (1:16) 34-R.Burkhead up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NE 22 – BUF 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%

    (1:35) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:39) 6-C.Schmidt punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 16%

    (11:03) 6-R.Allen punts 26 yards to BUF 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-47-J.Hollister.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:59) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NE 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-B.Reedy to NE 31 for 11 yards (30-L.Pitts).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (6:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 72%

    (3:11) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (:19) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NE 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (13:05) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (8:51) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete short left to 11-Z.Jones (24-S.Gilmore). Receiver and coverage in rear corner of end zone.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:41) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short middle to 39-T.Cadet to BUF 45 for 9 yards (23-P.Chung, 31-J.Jones). Dump pass, caught at BUF 40.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 30%

    (2:03) 6-R.Allen punts 31 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 81 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete short middle to 11-Z.Jones (25-E.Rowe) [91-D.Wise]. Receiver and coverage at BUF 28.