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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 30

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 6

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.11 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP