Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 23

(14:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to NE 19, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model