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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 74

New England Patriots 23 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.22 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP