4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 1

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 2-N.Peterman pass incomplete short left to 11-Z.Jones (24-S.Gilmore). Receiver and coverage in rear corner of end zone.

The Three Options

GO +4.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth +0.92 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model