Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 23

(3:41) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short middle to 39-T.Cadet to BUF 45 for 9 yards (23-P.Chung, 31-J.Jones). Dump pass, caught at BUF 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.84 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.91 EP